Long-term strategy for COVID
There have been four major COVID vaccine successes (Novavax, J&J, Gamaleya, Oxford with long dose interval) announced in the last week. There have been different efficacy numbers, but so far, all have been 100% effective at preventing hospitalization and death as far as trials can tell:
https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3
https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/02/health/russia-sputnik-v-phase-3-intl/index.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-02/astra-vaccine-shows-82-efficacy-with-3-month-gap-oxford-says
However, it's clear that the COVID virus (SARS-CoV-2) is evolving to become more transmissible and evade the immune system. Hence, in the long run (2022, 2023, etc.), it seems like keeping a lid on the pandemic will be a question of whether vaccine manufacturers can develop new boosters, get them approved, manufacture enough doses, and distribute them to everyone faster than the virus can mutate. The relevant FDA official has already announced an abbreviated trial schedule, which is only one piece of the puzzle but is still very important:
"Peter Marks, the head of the Food and Drug Administration division that oversees vaccines, said Friday that the agency will do what it can to speed the process. It won't require big clinical trials, for instance. Rather than studies of tens of thousands of people, the agency will mandate much smaller studies of a few hundred. The goal would be to ensure that the vaccines produce the desired immune response and to see whether the products cover just the new variants or the original virus as well as the new variation, he said.
"We would intend to be pretty nimble with this . . . so that we can get these variants covered as quickly as possible," Marks said on an American Medical Association webinar."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/covid-mutations-herd-immunity/2021/01/30/0741722e-627c-11eb-9430-e7c77b5b0297_story.html
It's not actually going to be 100% because almost nothing in biology ever is, but COVID hospitalizations aren't that rare (I think 1:~500 adult Americans at this point?), and seeing exactly zero across six different vaccine platforms in trials across (five? seven?) different countries is pretty notable.